Stat of the Day, 28th January 2020

Monday’s pick was…

6.30 Wolverhampton : Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 13/2 (Raced keenly, chased leaders on outside, ridden to lead inside final furlong, soon hung right, headed and no extra close home) – pretty much typifying my luck right now!

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

4.10 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Ladronne @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 5, Amateur Riders Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on Soft ground worth £3,619 to the winner…

Why?

Well, firstly let’s just say that the weather has forced my hand somewhat, removing the options I was considering at Lingfield for today’s piece/pick. But we are committed to provide a pick each day as long as there’s UK racing to pick from, so via a selection route less frequently worn by me for SotD, let me explain this pick…

He’s a lightly raced (3 x bumpers, 3 x hurdles) 6 yr old gelding seemingly unsuited by the tightness of Fakenham when 4th of 10 on New Year’s Day, but did go well on soft ground when a runner-up two starts ago in early December at Sedgefield, so I’d expect him to cope with the mud. He looks more of a stayer than “sprinter” if there’s such a thing over obstacles, so a step up in trip could well be beneficial, as should the dropping of two classes to run here today.

So we know he’s lightly raced and have made some reasonable assumptions about his suitability re: race conditions. We normally then look at trainer & jockey, but the yard is a small quiet one and the jockey appears to be making his debut. None of which is probably filling any of you with much hope, but all is not lost, as we’ve a way in via the sire Linda’s Lad, a former Group 3 winner over middle distance on the Flat in his day, but also a “producer” of quite a few NH winners.

In fact, his offspring are 27 from 149 (18.1% SR) in NH contests since the start of 2018 with the resultant 118.9pts profit equating to some 79.8% of stakes invested and from these runners, there’s actually a myriad of angles to consider. I’m “just” going to give you a baker’s dozen of them, all relevant today and all profitable, of course!

So of the 27/149 headline stat…

  • 27/147 (18.4%) for 120.9pts (+82.2%) from males
  • 26/126 (20.6%) for 73.9pts (+58.7%) aged 5-8
  • 25/88 (28.4%) for 72pts (+81.8%) at odds shorter than 12/1
  • 24/106 (22.6%) for 151.8pts (+143.2%) over trips of 2m½f to 3m½f
  • 21/110 (19.1%) for 122.7pts (+111.6%) from November to April
  • 20/113 (17.7%) for 89.9pts (+79.5%) in the UK
  • 18/111 (16.2%) for 78.8pts (+71%) in races worth less than £8,000
  • 17/95 (17.9%) for 110.9pts (+116.7%) over hurdles
  • 17/85 (20%) for 96.7pts (+113.7%) going left handed
  • 14/76 (18.4%) for 35.1pts (+46.1%) in handicaps
  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 77.3pts (+184.1%) at 21-30 days since last run
  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 40.4pts (+122.4%) off marks (OR) of 101-120
  • 7/28 (25%) for 4.86pts (+17.4%) on soft ground in the UK

…whilst 5-8 yr old males sent off shorter than 12/1 in UK hurdle races worth less than £8,000 over trips of 2m½f to 3m½f are 13 from 29 (44.8% SR) for 63pts (+217.25% ROI) and these include 5/11 (45.5%) off marks of 101-120, 5/9 (55.6%) after 21-30 dslr and 5/7 (71.4%) on soft ground…

…pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Ladronne @ 11/4 BOG as was available at 8.10am Tuesday morning from Bet365, 888Sport & Unibet (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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