Stat of the Day, 29th January 2020

Tuesday’s pick was…

4.10 Newcastle : Ladronne @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 (Held up and behind, switched right before not fluent 3 out, closed a little after 2 out, not fluent and still plenty to do last, ridden final 100 yards and finished with a flourish to lead close home) – I thought the jockey rode a superb race on debut.

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

6.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was narrowly defeated by a short head last time out in another Class 4 handicap at Chelmsford 18 days ago. He was only headed in the final strides and gets to go off the same mark today, but importantly drops back in trip to what I feel is his optimum 7f distance. That mere drop in trip should be all it needs to get him back to winning ways and the improvements of an already excellent record on the A/W.

He has made the frame in 9 of 13 (69.2%) starts on the all-weather, winning 6 times (46.2% SR) with those wins yielding 36.7pts (+282.2% ROI) profit. Under today’s conditions, those 13 races have produced the following…

  • 6 wins and 3 places from 10 after a break of 2-7 weeks
  • 6 wins, 2 places from 9 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 11 on Polytrack
  • 5 wins, 1 place from 8 over the 7f trip
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 9 wearing a tongue tie
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 7 at odds shorter than 4/1
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 4 in Class 4 races worth over £6k
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Kempton
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance
  • and 1 from 1 under today’s jockey PJ McDonald…

…whilst in his six races over 7f on Polytrack in fields of 8-11 runners after breaks of 2 to 7 weeks, Glenn Coco has made the frame 5 times (83.3%), winning 4 times (66.6% SR) for returns of 31.43pts at an ROI of 523.84%.

Trainer Stuart Williams is in good form right now with three winners and a placer from his four runners over the last week, including 2 from 2 here at Kempton and 1 from 1 with jockey PJ McDonald (also here at Kempton) and he has a good record when using today’s jockey on the A/W winning 16 of 64 (25% SR) for 25.06pts (+39.2% ROI), including…

  • 15/50 (30%) for 31.5pts (+63%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 11/44 (25%) for 7.38pts (+16.8%) in races worth up to £8k
  • 10/31 (32.3%) for 12.9pts (+41.5%) in 5-11 runner races worth up to £8k
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 24.2pts (+86.4%) on Polytrack
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 28.8pts (+106.6%) over 6/7f
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 10.26pts (+93.3%) here at Kempton…

…leading to...a 1pt win bet on Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG as was available at 8.05am Wednesday morning from BetVictor, Hills & Unibet (but please check your BOG status first) with plenty of 10/3 offered elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 6.45 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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