Stat of the Day, 30th January 2020

Wednesday’s pick was…

6.45 Kempton : Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Chased leaders, led entering final 2f, ridden and headed over 1f out, lost 2nd inside final furlong, weakened soon after

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

2.45 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Mr Clarkson @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 6-runner, Class 4, Beginners Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner…

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding made the frame on his chase debut at Exeter on New Year’s Day on similarly soft ground, albeit in a higher grade than today and over an inadequately short trip. Dropped in class and stepped up in trip, I expect him to build upon that first effort and go better here today.

In the beginners’ races, it’s quite often a case of how the horse fared over hurdles and possibly guessing whether he’ll be handled to his liking over the bigger obstacles. To that end, he is arguably the best suited of today’s 6 runners based on hurdling form and today’s jockey does seem to get the best from him.

He has already won 6 of 15 (40% SR) races for profits of 18.14pts (+120.9% ROI) including the following under similar conditions to today…

  • 6/10 (60%) for 23.14pts (+231.4%) in fields of 6-13 runners
  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 24.14pts (+268.2%) at odds of Evens to 6/1
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 13.68pts (+114%) under jockey David Noonan
  • 4/8 (50%) for 10.64pts (+133%) on Soft ground
  • 3/6 (50%) for 5.71pts (+95.2%) after less than 30 days rest
  • 3/6 (50%) for 12.96pts (+144%) in non-handicap contests
  • 3/5 (60%) for 7.5pts (+150%) at Class 4
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 11.11pts (+277.8%) over trips of 2m6f-3m…

…whilst from the above, he is 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 19.68pts (+328% ROI) when sent off at Evens to 6/1 in fields of 6-13 runners with David Noonan on his back, including a perfect three from three for 8.18pts (+272.7% ROI) on Soft ground…

…convincing me to place...a 1pt win bet on Mr Clarkson @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.10am Thursday morning from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Unibet (but please check your BOG status first) with that price becoming widely available shortly after. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.45 Ffos Las

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I’ll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there’ll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.

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