Stat of the Day, 1st February 2020

Friday’s pick was…

3.05 Catterick : Casual Cavalier @ 11/4 BOG WON at 5/1 (Tracked leaders, disputed lead from 7th, led 4 out, 3 lengths clear 2 out, ridden out flat, held on near finish) – a very satisfactory end to a frustrating month that also started well, but had a serious dip in the middle!

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.40 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG

…in the 10-runner, Class 3, Scottish Champion Chase (Handicap for the Bowes-Lyon trophy) for 5yo+ over 2m on Good to Soft ground worth £13,256 to the winner…

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has made the frame in 8 of his 9 starts (5 over hrds and then 4 over fences) during the past 12 months, winning four times. His record over fences reads 3311 including successes at 1m7.5f and 2m0.5f and als0 at this Class 3 level and a grade higher.

To date, he was won 4 of 12 (33.33% SR), including the following applicable today…

  • 4/9 going right handed
  • 4/8 after 2 to 7 weeks rest
  • 4/4 at Evens to 6/1
  • 3/8 at 15.5 to 16.5 furlongs
  • 3/5 during December to March
  • and 2/2 in handicap chases

He has travelled a long way to run here today, but his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies does well when far from home. Since the start of 2016, his NH non-Festival runners sent off at odds of 6/5 to 8/1 at tracks more than 200 miles from home are 12 from 51 (23.5% SR) for 10.4pts (+20.4% ROI), including the following of relevance here…

  • 12/46 (26.1%) for 15.4pts (+33.4%) during October-March
  • 12/45 (26.7%) for 16.4pts (+36.4%) at 240-340 miles from home
  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 18.9pts (+57.4%) in races worth £4k to £14k
  • 9/34 (26.5%) for 17.3pts (+50.8%) over the last two years
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 3.42pts (+14.3%) at Class 3
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 12.2pts (+76.1%) after 1 to 4 weeks rest
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 18.4pts (+167.2%) during Feb/March
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 11pts (+84.4%) on Good to Soft
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.13pts (+83%) from LTO winners

…whilst during October to March over the last two years at 240-340 miles from home in races worth £4-14k, those runners are 8/20 (40% SR) 21.8pts (+109% ROI), including…

  • 4/11 (36.4%) at Class 3
  • 4/6 (66.6%) in Feb/March
  • 3/7 (42.9%) on Good to Soft
  • 3/5 (60%) after 1-4 weeks rest
  • and 2/4 (50%) from LTO winners…

…giving us...a 1pt win bet on Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Saturday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.40 Musselburgh

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’m away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I’ll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there’ll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.

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