Stat of the Day, 4th February 2020

Monday’s pick was…

6.30 Wolverhampton : Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Slowly into stride, held up in mid-division, headway on outside 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, led and edged left entering final furlong, ran on under pressure, headed last strides)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

7.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 7-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner…


This 6 yr old male is one of only two former course and distance winners in today’s contest and showed signs of a return to form when a runner-up at this class, track and trip last time out fifteen days ago.

His record here is good, making the frame 8 times (57.1%) from 14 attempts, including four wins (28.6% SR) that have generated 29.22pts profit at an ROI of some 208.7% from which he is…

  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.22pts (+292.9%) off today’s mark of 76 or lower
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.41pts (+163%) when sent off at odds ranging from Evens to 8/1
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.04pts (+167.4%) at Class 4
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.04pts (+167.4%) over course and distance
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 24.18pts (+806%) within 15 days of his last run
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 4.22pts (+211%) in February

Jockey Ben Curtis takes the ride for the first time today and Ben is red hot right now, winning on 6 of his 19 (31.6% SR) mounts over the last four days and whilst he rarely rides for trainer Tony Carroll, the pair were 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 10.75pts (+179.1% ROI) together in January, including 2 from 4 (50%) for 8.33pts (+208.2%) on handicaps and 2 from 2 (100%) for 9.67pts (+483.5%) beyond a mile…

…giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Unibet at 8.05am Tuesday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.30 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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