Stat of the Day, 5th February 2020

Tuesday’s pick was…

7.30 Kempton : Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/4 (Prominent, effort on inside over 2f out, every chance from over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

4.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner…

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding got back to winning ways when scoring at Newcastle last time out 13 days ago under today’s jockey Barry McHugh, who is riding really well right now. In fact, he has made the frame in 7 of 10 rides over the past fortnight, winning 3 times and since the start of 2017 is 18/89 (20.2% SR) for 38.9pts (+43.7% ROI) on the A/W here at Southwell, including of relevance today…

  • 17/76 (22.4%) for 49.1pts (+64.6%) during October-March
  • 16/78 (20.5%) for 38.9pts (+49.9%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 14/75 (18.7%) for 33.7pts (+44.9%) in handicaps
  • 14/61 (23%) for 47pts (+77.1%) with male runners
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 10.23pts (+113.7%) from LTO winners

…whilst he is 8/36 (22.2% SR) for 41.5pts (+115.2% ROI) on male handicappers chasing less than £4k during October to March, including 2/4 (50%) for 2.93pts (+73.3%) on LTO winners.

Meanwhile, trainer Michael Herrington seems to have a knack of getting his small string of horses to win back to back races, invariably sending them back out fairly soon after a win to strike whilst the iron is hot, so to speak. Since the start of 2016, his LTO winners are 10 from 44 (22.7% SR) for 26.4pts at an ROI of 60.1% in UK handicap contests, from which he is/they are…

  • 10/36 (27.8%) for 34.4pts (+95.6%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 9/33 (27.3%) for 32.3pts (+98%) on the A/W
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 24.6pts (+76.9%) shorter than 7/1
  • 9/29 (31%) for 27.6pts (+95.2%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 37.3pts (+133.3%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 23pts (+121.1%) within a fortnight of their last run
  • and 6/17 (35.3%) for 19.3pts (+113.8%) at Class 6

and those sent off sub-7/1 on the A/W chasing less than £4k in fields of 9-13 runners within 25 days of their last run are 8 from 14 (57.1% SR) for 37.5pts (+267.9% ROI) profit, including 5 from 7 (71.4%) for 28.26pts (+403.7%) over the last two years…

…giving us...a 1pt win bet on Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 8.05am Wednesday morning with a smattering of 10/3 around too, but as always please check your BOG status. There was a drift in the market in the hour after I went live, so you should all be able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.00 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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