Wednesday’s pick was…
4.00 Southwell : Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG 10th at 8/1 (Always in rear)
Thursday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG
…in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner…
This 7 yr old gelding quite probably needed the run last time out, when finishing fourth here over course and distance a fortnight ago in a better field than this one. He was coming back from a 3-month break that day, but got going late on to stay on into fourth, beaten by just over a length and a quarter.
This looks a slightly weaker contest (based on OR marks) against fewer rivals with the benefits of (a) having had a run, (b) being eased a pound by the assessor and (c) having a 7lb claimer ride instead of a 5lb one, making him effectively 3lbs better off here.
He is currently 3 from 12 (25% SR) for 2.5pts (+20.8% ROI) profit backed blindly over today’s track and trip in handicap contests, including…
- 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.5pts (+81.2%) at odds shorter than 8/1
- 3/3 (100%) for 11.5pts (+383.2%) carrying 9st 1lb to 9st 3lbs after allowances, of course
- 2/4 (50%) for 2.09pts (+52.1%) after a break of 1-2 weeks
…and he’s 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 4.09pts (+204.5% ROI) when all three of the above are aligned as they are today.
His record here comes as less of a surprise, if you know that he’s by Frozen Power, whose offspring are 19 from 66 (28.8% SR) for 40.5pts (+61.4% ROI) profit since the start of 2016 in UK A/W handicaps on Tapeta over trips shorter than 1m2f at odds of 8/1 and shorter, including of note/relevance today…
- 18/58 (31%) for 40.1pts (+69.2%) within six weeks of their last run
- 15/50 (30%) for 30.1pts (+60.2%) at trips of 5-7f
- 14/44 (31.8%) for 27.7pts (+62.9%) at trips of 5-7f within six weeks of their last run
- 9/31 (29%) for 13.1pts (+42.3%) here at Newcastle
- 9/25 (36%) for 19.1pts (+76.4%) here at Newcastle at trips of 5-7f within six weeks of their last run
- 3/10 (30%) for 13.43pts (+134.3%) in February
- and 2/5 (40%) for 10.02pts (+200.4%) in February at trips of 5-7f within six weeks of their last run…
…pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.00am Thursday morning with some 3/1 at SkyBet too, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!