Thursday’s pick was…
7.00 Newcastle : Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 2/1 (Awkward start, in rear, ridden over 1f out, went never dangerous 4th inside final furlong)
Friday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG
…in a 7-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ Maidens over 1m on Fibresand worth £3,429 to the winner…
Well, with potential SotD picks thin on the ground today (my 5-runner shortlist was this one, an 8/1 shot and three at 11/10 or shorter), we’re entering fairly unfamiliar territory in a Maiden Handicap and we’ll be taking on a fairly warm favourite, but hey : one of these has to break their duck today!
Obviously this 7-runner contest has no previous winners, but our 4 yr old gelding has at least finished 2423 (all under today’s jockey) in his last four starts, so he’s bringing some sort of form to the table, including a runner-up finish on his only previous effort on this track/surface. Blinkers are applied today for the first-time in a (well-tried by his trainer) bid to eke out a bit more from the horse.
Despite now being 0 from 18, he has a 50% place strike rate (4/8) under today’s jockey Shane Kelly, who himself is 9/25 (36% SR) for 16.65pts (+66.6% ROI) on horses sent off shorter than 7/1 here at Southwell since the start of 2018 and these include…
- 8/18 (44.4%) for 21.82pts (+121.2%) in 6-11 runner contests
- 6/12 (50%) for 13.28pts (+110.6%) at Class 5
- 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.02pts (+109.3%) over this 1m C&D
- 5/9 (55.6%) for 14.44pts (+160.4%) in Class 5, 6-11 runner contests
- 4/8 (50%) for 13.19pts (+164.8%) in 6-11 runner C&D contests
- 4/6 (66.6%) for 10.13pts (+168.9%) in Class 5 C&D races
- and 3/5 (60%) for 9.3pts (+186%) in Class 5, 6-11 runner contests over this 1m course and distance
And in that same 2018-now time-frame, trainer Tony Carroll’s runners at this venue are 16 from 75 (21.3% SR) for 246.2pts (+328.2% ROI), figures skewed by a couple of decent priced winners, but the SR is still impressive nonetheless and the figures are still profitable without the “biggies” and include…
- 9/41 (22%) for 56.9pts (+138.8%) after a break of 11-30 days
- 6/23 (26.1%) for 98.5pts (+428.1%) during February & March
- 6/19 (31.6%) for 46.4pts (+244.3%) at Class 5
- 6/16 (37.5%) for 166.7pts (+1041.8%) with 4 yr olds
- 5/9 (55.6%) for 57.4pts (+637.4%) in blinkers
- and 3/5 (60%) for 52.6pts (+1052.1%) in first-time blinkers
That first-time blinkers stat is interesting, because further digging tells me that since the start of 2016, Tony Carroll’s runners sporting the blinkers for the first time have won 8 of 27 races (29.6% SR) for 112.7pts profit at an ROI of some 417.3% and that’s probably enough for today about a 0/18 maiden…
…to suggest...a 1pt win bet on Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor, Marathon & Paddy Power at 8.10am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!