Stat of the Day, 7th February 2020

Thursday’s pick was…

7.00 Newcastle : Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 2/1 (Awkward start, in rear, ridden over 1f out, went never dangerous 4th inside final furlong)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

3.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG

…in a 7-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ Maidens over 1m on Fibresand worth £3,429 to the winner… 

Why?

Well, with potential SotD picks thin on the ground today (my 5-runner shortlist was this one, an 8/1 shot and three at 11/10 or shorter), we’re entering fairly unfamiliar territory in a Maiden Handicap and we’ll be taking on a fairly warm favourite, but hey : one of these has to break their duck today!

Obviously this 7-runner contest has no previous winners, but our 4 yr old gelding has at least finished 2423 (all under today’s jockey) in his last four starts, so he’s bringing some sort of form to the table, including a runner-up finish on his only previous effort on this track/surface. Blinkers are applied today for the first-time in a (well-tried by his trainer) bid to eke out a bit more from the horse.

Despite now being 0 from 18, he has a 50% place strike rate (4/8) under today’s jockey Shane Kelly, who himself is 9/25 (36% SR) for 16.65pts (+66.6% ROI) on horses sent off shorter than 7/1 here at Southwell since the start of 2018 and these include…

  • 8/18 (44.4%) for 21.82pts (+121.2%) in 6-11 runner contests
  • 6/12 (50%) for 13.28pts (+110.6%) at Class 5
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.02pts (+109.3%) over this 1m C&D
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 14.44pts (+160.4%) in Class 5, 6-11 runner contests
  • 4/8 (50%) for 13.19pts (+164.8%) in 6-11 runner C&D contests
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 10.13pts (+168.9%) in Class 5 C&D races
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 9.3pts (+186%) in Class 5, 6-11 runner contests over this 1m course and distance

And in that same 2018-now time-frame, trainer Tony Carroll’s runners at this venue are 16 from 75 (21.3% SR) for 246.2pts (+328.2% ROI), figures skewed by a couple of decent priced winners, but the SR is still impressive nonetheless and the figures are still profitable without the “biggies” and include…

  • 9/41 (22%) for 56.9pts (+138.8%) after a break of 11-30 days
  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 98.5pts (+428.1%) during February & March
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 46.4pts (+244.3%) at Class 5
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 166.7pts (+1041.8%) with 4 yr olds
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 57.4pts (+637.4%) in blinkers
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 52.6pts (+1052.1%) in first-time blinkers

That first-time blinkers stat is interesting, because further digging tells me that since the start of 2016, Tony Carroll’s runners sporting the blinkers for the first time have won 8 of 27 races (29.6% SR) for 112.7pts profit at an ROI of some 417.3% and that’s probably enough for today about a 0/18 maiden…

…to suggest...a 1pt win bet on Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor, Marathon & Paddy Power at 8.10am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.05 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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