Stat of the Day, 10th February 2020

Saturday’s pick was…

4.10 Newbury : Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 10/3 (Raced keenly, made most until mistake and headed 14th, lost 2nd approaching next, weakened before 3 out, tailed off)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

4.15 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy (Soft in places) ground worth £4,094 to the winner…

Why?

This 12 yr old gelding was a winner on his penultimate start over these smaller obstacles at Fontwell, back in November and his name appeared in quite a few of the angles I consider before coming to a daily decision. In the interests of not boring you, I’ll keep it brief and just suggest 4 reasons why he might go well here today.

1. Jockey David Bass is in good form right now, having won 3 of 12 (25% SR) for 8.9pts (+74.2% ROI) this month already.

2. Trainer Lawney Hill’s record when her only runner of the day is a handicapper priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 range stands at 16 from 53 (30.2% SR) for 56.5pts (+106.6% ROI) since the start of 2016, including…

  • 16/40 (40%) for 69.5pts (+173.8%) within 100 miles drive of her base
  • and 5/16 (31.25%) for 12.1pts (+75.7%) here at Plumpton

3. In that same 2016-20 time frame, her NH handicappers racing on Soft or “worse” ground are 8 from 25 (32% SR) for 24.05pts (+96.2% ROI) when sent off no longer than 12/1, including…

  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 4.95pts (+55%) at Class 4
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.5pts (+194.4%) during January & February

4. Whilst her “late season” (ie Feb-April) handicappers are also 8 from 25 (32% ROI) since the start of 2016 with their 22.75pts profit equating to an ROI of some 91% with those sent off at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 6 of 12 (50%) for 31pts (+258.2%)

…which leaves us with...a 1pt win bet on Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG as was available from 888Sport & Unibet at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.15 Plumpton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *