Stat of the Day, 11th February 2020

Monday’s pick was…

4.10 Plumpton : Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 15/2 (Led until after 1st, chased leader until before 3 out, went 2nd again before next, kept on same pace, no chance with winner)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

5.20 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner…

Why?

Our hand has been forced slightly again by the weather, but I think we’ve got a good chance with this 5 yr old Mare looking to snap a long losing run, now that she’s rated (OR) 3lbs lower than her last win.

She showed signs of a return to form five days ago when finishing as a runner-up over course and distance of today’s mark of 64 in a Class 5 contest and with a drop in class allied to having a 5lb claimer on her back here, she could go one better today turned back out quickly.

Stat-wise, I’m going to keep it fairly brief and simple, as I try to unravel why she is running again so quickly and the obvious thing is that her handlers feel she’s ready to win after that seeming return to form and a closer analysis of the yard’s MO backs this up as…

…trainer Michael Herrington is 17 from 70 (24.3% SR) for 22.1pts (+31.5% ROI) when backing all his UK handicappers since the start of 2016 turned back out within a fortnight of finishing in the first three home last time out, including of relevance today…

  • 15/44 (34.1%) for 24.2pts (+55.1%) at odds of Evens to 6/1
  • 14/53 (26.4%) for 22.8pts (+43.1%) on the A/W
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 33.8pts (+86.6%) with 2-6 yr olds
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 16.1pts (+62%) at Class 6
  • 9/34 (26.5%) for 13.7pts (+40.4%) on Tapeta
  • 6/20 (30%) for 18.6pts (+93%) over trips of 7 to 9.5 furlongs
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 11.65pts (+105.9%) with female runners

…whilst his 2-6 yr olds sent off at Evens to 6/1 in Class 6 contests on Tapeta are 4/10 (40% SR) for 8.81pts (+88.1% ROI)…

…giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365, SkyBet & Unibet at 8.03am Tuesday will Hills offering slightly more, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.20 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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