Stat of the Day, 12th February 2020

Tuesday’s pick was…

5.20 Newcastle : Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 5/2 (Held up in rear, smooth headway near side of group halfway, chased leaders 3f out, ridden inside final 2f, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

2.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Liamba @ 9/2 BOG

…in a 6-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £3,429 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old mare wasn’t at her best last time out 15 days ago, when beaten here over course and distance, but she did win her two previous outings and there’s every chance she’ll bounce back today on a track she loves.

Her record here at Southwell stands at 3 wins and 7 further places from 13 efforts, including the following of relevance today…

  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 when sent off shorter than 9/1
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 off a mark of 61-70
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 8 after 15-30 days rest
  • and 2 wins, 2 places from 7 at Class 5

whilst she’s 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 7.3pts (+121.6% ROI) at sub-9/1 odds off a mark of 61-70 returning from 15-30 days off track, including 2 from 5 (40%) for 5.7pts (+114%) at Class 5.

Her trainer, David O’Meara is flying right now, with 3 winners from 6 in the last seven days and an overall 32% strike rate for the past month (8 from 25) and he does have a decent record in this type of contest.

Since the start of 2017, his Class 5 runners competing over 6-7 furlongs here at Southwell have won 6 of 20 (30% SR) for profits of 4.95pts (+24.75% ROI), including…

  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 6.2pts (+44.3%) in fields of fewer than 10 runners
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.39pts (+85.3%) from females
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 7.43pts (+67.5%) since the start of 2019
  • 4/10 (40%) for 5.26pts (+52.6%) during January to May
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 1.5pts (+16.7%) with those returning from 6-20 days rest…

…giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Coral, Ladbrokes & Unibet at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.20 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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