Stat of the Day, 13th February 2020

Wednesday’s pick was…

2.20 Southwell : Liamba @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 6/1 (Led, headed over 3f out, weakened over 1f out)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

3.00 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going “live”.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Troubled Soul @ 10/3 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m7f on Soft ground worth £6,758 to the winner…


This 11 yr old mare is a consistent/hardy sort and that might be all that’s needed here. She recorded six consecutive top 3 finishes prior to struggling under a 3lb claimer last time out. Regular jockey Paddy Brennan is back in the saddle today and with a 2lb easing of her mark, I’d expect more from her today.

She’s Fergal O’Brien’s only runner of the day and he’s 6 from 24 (25% SR) for 40.9pts (+163.6% ROI) in handicap chases here at Leicester since the start of 2015, including of relevance today…

  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 43.9pts (+199.5%) in races worth £4-10k
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 51.9pts (+370.5%) with runners returning from 3 to 8 weeks rest
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 43.2pts (+332.2%) over trips of 2m6.5f to 2m7.5f
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 33.1pts (+254.3%) with Paddy Brennan in the saddle
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.9pts (+182.1%) on Soft ground

…whilst those competing for £4-10k after 3-8 weeks rest are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 52.9pts (+406.7% ROI), from which…

  • Paddy Brennan is 4/7 (57.1%) for 39.1pts (+557.8%)
  • those racing over 2m6.5f to 2m7.5f are 4/6 (66.6%) for 50.2pts (+836.6%)
  • and on soft ground : 2/5 (40%) for 11.9pts (+238.5%)

Meanwhile, more generally, Fergal O’Brien’s handicap chasers sent off at odds ranging from 2/1 to 11/1 during February to April inclusive are 16 from 80 (20% SR) for 35.8pts (+44.7% ROI) since Feb 1st 2016, including…

  • 11/53 (20.8%) for 34.4pts (+64.8%) after 16-60 days off track
  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 30pts (+65.2%) under Paddy Brennan
  • 8/41 (19.5%) for 27.7pts (+67.6%) over 2m6.5f to 3m2f
  • and 8/35 (22.9%) for 23.5pts (+67.2%) from Fergal’s only runner at the track that day…

…and there has been 8 horses that, like today’s pick, tick all four of the above boxes and they have yielded 3 winners (37.5% SR) and 15.7pts (+196.4% ROI) profit including one from one here at Leicester…

…pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Troubled Soul @ 10/3 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.00am Thursday with plenty of 3/1 elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.00 Leicester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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