Stat of the Day, 14th February 2020

Thursday’s pick was…

3.00 Leicester : Troubled Soul @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 7/1 (Not always fluent, in rear on outside, some headway 9th, hit 12th, soon well beaten)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

3.50 Fakenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going “live”.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG

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…in a 5-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £6,433 to the winner…

Why?

Well, one of the benefits of posting the picks just after 8.00am means we’ve avoided a non-runner today, after my first choice was scheduled to run at Sandown, hence me going with one slightly shorter in price than I’d normally put up for you (hopefully, there’ll be a bit of an early-morning drift). That doesn’t, of course, mean that I don’t expect to have a winner!

So, why this 6 yr old mare? Well, she’s lightly (just 5 starts to date) raced, but has 3 wins and a runner-up finish (odds-on defeat by just a neck at Carlisle LTO 11 days ago) to her name already and aside from her own suitability to the task ahead, I’ve a few other strands of data that suggest a good run is due here, so I’ll try to keep it as brief as I can, starting with…

..the horse, whose 17112 form line includes…

  • 1711 going left handed
  • 112 at Class 4
  • 112 on Soft or softer
  • 112 under jockey Gavin Sheehan (more on him in a moment)
  • and 1 from 1 here at Fakenham

After her narrow defeat at odds-on LTO, she’ll look to bounce back quickly and the omens are good as since the start of 2017 in UK NH handicaps, horses turned back out within 30 days of an odds-on defeat of 2 lengths or shorter are 19 from 59 (32.2% SR) for 25.8pts (+43.8% ROI) profit, including the following at play today…

  • 16/30 (53.3%) for 31.8pts (+106%) at odds of evens to 5/1
  • 12/22 (54.6%) for 23pts (+104.5%) at Class 4
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 13.1pts (+38.6%) over hurdles
  • and 7/13 (53.9%) for 21.7pts (+167.1%) over trips of 2m7.5f to 3m1.5f

…with Class 4 runners sent off at evens to 5/1 winning 11 of 16 (68.75% SR) for 20.95pts (+168.4% ROI) profit.

…and now to the jockey. Gavin Sheehan is in good touch right now, having won 5 of 19 (26.3% SR) for 13.5pts (+71.1% ROI) already this month, including of relevance today…

  • 5/10 (50%) for 22.5pts (+225%) at evens to 8/1
  • 3/10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%) in novice races
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 11.2pts (+124.3%) in handicaps
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 10.9pts (+218%) on soft ground

and finally our trainer today is Miss Venetia Williams, about whom I have many profitable angles, but we’ll just quickly look at two for today, starting with an angle I loosely label “Winter 3m+”. Basically some trainers fare better than others with stayers in the main NH season. In Venetia’s case, backing her runners during October to April at evens to 8/1 is very successful.

Since the start of 2017, this approach has generated 32 winners from 120 (26.7% SR) for 73.6pts (+61.4% ROI) profit, broken down under today’s conditions as follows…

  • 16/49 (32.7%) for 47.9pts (+97.8%) on soft ground
  • 11/41 (26.8%) for 20.7pts (+50.4%) at Class 4
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 20.4pts (+119.9%) in February
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.5pts (+85.5%) 11-15 days after their last run
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 15.3pts (+95.8%) with female runners
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 12pts (+133.3%) in novice contests

The other angle I want to touch on before eventually (I didn’t want you all to think that second choice meant I’d put less effort in!) signing off on this one is Miss Williams’ record in Class 4 handicap hurdles, because at odds of evens to 9/1 since the start of 2017 she has definitely been worth following with 14 winners from 57 (24.6% SR) producing profits of 24.3pts at a decent ROI of 42.6% including…

  • 10/44 (22.7%) for 10.14pts (+23.1%) on soft or softer ground
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 17.4pts (+96.7%) from her 6 yr olds
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.04pts (+168%) over trips of 2m7.5f to 3m1.5f

…all of which has steered me towards...a 1pt win bet on Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Friday (with plenty of 11/4 appearing from 8.30 onwards!), but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.50 Fakenham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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