Stat of the Day, 20th February 2020

Wednesday’s pick was…

3.55 Doncaster : My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Raced wide, held up, not fluent 1st, headway 12th, ridden and weakened after 3 out)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

4.50 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going “live”.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Bolt N Brown @ 11/4 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner…

Why?

Sorry for the delay this morning. We’d a storm and subsequent power cut overnight here. I’d already gone through the cards last night before bed, so it was just a case of checking prices this morning, so rest assured, I’ve put the normal amount of work into finding today’s pick, but as we’re against the clock, I’ll keep the write-up brief…

…about a 4 yr old filly whose last two runs were a runner-up finish here on the A/W over 2m 0.5f ahead of a win LTO over hurdles in a Class 4, 2m contest at Ludlow. This might suggest she’s a better hurdler than on the A/W, where she runs at Class 6, but we’ll see!

Her yard is going well enough of late, Gay Kelleway’s A/W runners are 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 41.4pts (+197.3% ROI) over the past month, including…

  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 11.43pts (+103.9%) here at Southwell
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 19.94pts (+221.5%) at Class 6
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 8.74pts (+218.4%) at Class 6 here at Southwell…

…which is fairly unsurprising to me, as her record here at this venue since 2016 stands at 16 winners from 91 (17.6% SR) for 44.05pts (+48.4% ROI) backed blindly and here’s how she got those 16 winners based on today’s conditions…

  • 14 came from 70 (20%) in December-March for 57.55pts (+82.2%)
  • 13 came from 70 (18.6%) over 6f to 1m4f for 52pts (+74.3%)
  • 13 came from 67 (19.4%) at Class 5/6 for 22.9pts (+33.9%)
  • 12 came from 62 (19.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 for 25pts (+40.4%)
  • 6 came from 14 (42.9%) sent off at Evens to 10/3 for 8.02pts (+57.3%)
  • 5 came from 18 (27.8%) 8-runner contests for 39.57pts (+219.9%)
  • and 3 came from 11 (27.3%) races over this 1m4f C&D for 25.05pts (+227.7%)

…whilst at Class 5/6 over 6f to 1m4f during December to March for prizes of less than £4k, those 91 original Gay Kelleway Southwell runners are 9 from 37 (24.3% SR) for 35.05pts (+94.7% ROI) including 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 4.23pts (+140.8%) over this 1m4f C&D…

…giving us...a 1pt win bet on Bolt N Brown @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 9.30am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.50 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I’ve a doctor’s appointment at 8.00am Friday, so the selection will appear when I get back.

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