Stat of the Day, 26th February 2020

Tuesday’s pick was…

4.45 Catterick : Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG WON at 7/1 (Mid-division, headway after 3 out, challenged towards stands side rail next, not clear run and switched inside between last 2, soon ridden, stayed on to lead towards finish) : nice to “nick” one and the other mentioned horse also won for a 35/1 double!

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

4.40 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going “live”.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Summer Lightening @ 10/3 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 4, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4f on Soft ground worth £3,964 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old mare was a winner last time out five weeks ago, comes here seeking a hat-trick and is the only one of the 9 runners in this contest with any real discernible recent form, as only one other has a win in their last five outings.

She has won three times so far, including…

  • 2 in handicaps
  • 2 this year
  • 2 for jockey Conor O’Farrell
  • 2 for trainer Dianne Sayer
  • 1 at Class 4
  • and 1 on Soft ground

Her trainer Dianne Sayer tends to do well with in-form horses and since the start of 2018, her LTO winners are 11 from 36 (30.6% SR) for 12.7pts (+35.3% ROI) with the following derived angles at play today…

  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 12.46pts (+36.7%) in handicaps
  • 10/27 (37%) for 19.46pts (+72.1%) at 5-35 dslr
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 19.76pts (+82.3%) with runners aged 4-6 yrs old
  • 9/15 (60%) for 14.7pts (+98%) at odds of 5/4 to 15/4
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 7.9pts (+52.7%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 11.94pts (+85.3%) when racing just 70-120 miles away from her base just South of Penrith
  • 6/10 (60%) for 15.05pts (+150.5%) on Soft ground
  • 5/10 (50%) for 19.8pts (+198%) with those stepping up in trip
  • 3/10 (30%) for 1.18pts (+11.8%) at Class 4
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 10.47pts (+116.3%) in fields of 9-10 runners
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 0.28pts (+4.74%) with jockey Conor O’Farrell

…whilst 4-6 yr old handicappers sent off at 5/4 to 15/4 after 5-35 days rest are 7 from 10 (70% SR) for 14.75pts (+147.5% ROI), including 4 from 5 (80%) for 9.09pts (+181.8%) over hurdles…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Summer Lightening @ 10/3 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.05am Wednesday with plenty of 3/1 BOG around elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.40 Musselburgh

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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