Stat of the Day, 27th February 2020

Wednesday’s pick was…

4.40 Musselburgh : Summer Lightening @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Chased leaders, not fluent 2nd, lost place after next, ridden 7th, closed on outside next, weakened before normal 3 out (actual 2 out)) : she showed very little desire to get involved.

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

3.25 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going “live”.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Cap St Vincent @ 9/2 BOG

…in a 6-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £12,736 to the winner…

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding won another soft ground, Class 3, handicap chase when last seen 25 days ago at Taunton and although he’s up 5lbs for that win, a change of jockey to an in-form 5lb claimer sorts that out.

He’s now got 4 wins and 2 from 9 starts over fences, including under today’s conditions…

  • 4 wins and a place from 7 going right handed
  • 3 wins and a place from 4 at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 at Class 3
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 on soft ground
  • and 1 from 1 here at Ludlow

The afore-mentioned jockey, Charlie Price, hasn’t been overworked of late (mind you, we’ve lost plenty of racing recently), but has won 3 and placed in 4 others of his 10 rides in the past three weeks, which is decent enough and he now teams up with trainer Tim Vaughan, who himself has had some joy here in Shropshire in the past few years.

More specifically, Tim Vaughan’s chasers at Ludlow (all male btw) are 9 from 30 (30% SR) for 48.7pts (+162.4% ROI) if backed blindly since the start of 2014, with the following of relevance today…

  • 9/29 (31%) for 49.7pts (+171.4%) in handicaps
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 55.7pts (+242.2%) in races worth £4k to £13k
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 44.4pts (+193.1%) in 5-9 runner contests
  • 8/20 (40%) for 36.8pts (+184%) at odds of 10/1 and shorter
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.7pts (+297%) at 21-30 dslr
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 15.7pts (+142.4%) over this 3m C&D
  • 3/10 (30%) for 39.7pts (+397.2%) at class 3
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 2.13pts (+106.5%) with LTO winners…

whilst those sent off at 10/1 or shorter in 5-9 runner handicaps worth £4k to £13k are 7 from 12 (58.3% SR) for 33.5pts (+279.3% ROI) and these include 5 from 6 within 25 dslr, 3 from 3 at this 3m C&D, 2 from 2 from LTO winners and 1 from 1 at Class 3…

pointing towardsa 1pt win bet on Cap St Vincent @ 9/2 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Unibet at 8.00am Thursday (and widely available by 9.00am) with some 5/1 BOG at Hills, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.25 Ludlow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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