Stat of the Day, 28th February 2020

Thursday’s pick was…

3.25 Ludlow : Cap St Vincent @ 9/2 BOG PU at 3/1 (Held up, headway 13th, mistake next, weakened before 4 out, pulled up before 3 out)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

7.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going “live”.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Watheer @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 7, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Tapeta worth £2,523 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has finished 212 in his last three runs and now drops into this basement grade for the first time, where I’m hoping he’ll just be a bit too good. He has the benefit of a track specialist on board today, as jockey Callum Rodriguez is 42 from 238 (17.7% SR) for 126.1pts (+53% ROI) on the Tapeta here at Newcastle, including 14 from 51 (27.5%) for 106.5pts (+208.7%) in 1m course and distance handicaps.

Trainer Roger Fell often sends horses back out fairly quickly to good effect and since the start of 2018, his A/W handicappers rested for less than three weeks are 29 from 176 (16.5% SR) for 254.3pts (+144.5% ROI), from which those racing over trips of a mile or shorter are 25 from 137 (18.25%) for 277.8pts (+202.8%)

And my third and final (hurray, he’s keeping it brief!) set of data for today tells us that Roger Fell’s Class 4 or lower handicappers wearing cheekpieces and racing over trips shorter than 1m1f are 11 from 60 (18.3% SR) for 119.3pts (+198.9% ROI) since the start of 2017 when they’ve worn that headgear on fewer than three previous occasions, including…

  • 11/47 (23.4%) for 132.3pts (+281.6%) at 1-25 dslr
  • 5/20 (25%) for 95.7pts (+478.7%) on the A/W
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 75.9pts (+444.4%) on tapeta
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 2.21pts (+20.1%) after a top 2 finish LTO…

giving usa 1pt win bet on Watheer @ 3/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.05am Friday with plenty 11/4 BOG elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.15 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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