Stat of the Day, 29th February 2020

Friday’s pick was…

7.15 Newcastle : Watheer @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Prominent, driven to challenge over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on until no extra and lost place towards finish and beaten by two lengths)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

6.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going “live”.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charlie D @ 10/3 BOG

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…in a 7-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Fibresand worth £5,208 to the winner…

Why?

This 5yr old gelding has won 6 of 20 (30% SR) so far, an impressive return that includes the following under today’s conditions…

  • 5/17 in handicaps
  • 5/16 wearing a tongue tie
  • 5/15 in cheekpieces
  • 5/13 at 6-25 dslr
  • 5/8 at 9/4 to 4/1
  • 3/11  at 1m6f and beyond
  • 3/10 in fields of 1-7 runners
  • and 2/9 under today’s jockey, Richard Kingscote…

…whilst he is 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 9.5pts (+237.2%) when sent off at 9/4 to 4/1 wearing both cheekpieces and a tongue tie in handicaps after a rest of 6-25 days. All are at 1m6f and beyond, including 2/2 in fields of 1 to 7 and 1 from 2 for Richard Kingscote.

The trainer (Tom Dascombe) / jockey partnership is a well worn farrow stat-wise, so I won’t go there today, so let’s find some other angles to back up the selection.

The sire, Animal Kingdom‘s offspring are 14 from 42 (33.3% SR) for 294.5pts (+701.3% ROI) on the Flat/AW beyond 1m3f, including of note today…

  • 13/35 (37.1%) for pts (+25.7%) in handicaps
  • 12/20 (60%) for 22.5pts (+112.5%) at Evens to 4/1
  • 11/29 (37.9%) for 4.71pts (+16.3%) in 3-8 runner contests
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 299.9pts (+1153.4%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 3.01pts (+13.7%) at 1m6f and beyond
  • and 6/24 (25%) for 291.7pts (+1215.3%) from males…

..whilst those sent off at Evens to 4/1 in 3-8 runner handicaps after a break of 1-25 days are 7 from 10 (70% SR) for 13.06pts (+130.6% ROI).

And now back to the trainer, Tom Dascombe, whose record here at Southwell over the last six years is excellent at 12 wins from 43 (27.9% SR) and profits of 60.3pts represent a 140.2% return on stakes.

Despite only having less than 50 runners here in six years, there are still a whole host of profitable/relevant angles at play today, so here are “just” a dozen ways of how he got those 12 winners…

  1. Males : 12/41 (29.3%) for 62.3pts (+151.9%)
  2. 3-7 yr olds : 11/29 (37.9%) for 51.9pts (+179.1%)
  3. Handicappers : 9/34 (26.5%) for 55.4pts (+163%)
  4. His only runner here on the day : 9/27 (33.3%) for 56.8pts (+210.4%)
  5. Those who raced in the previous 30 days : 9/27 (33.3%) for 48.3pts (+178.7%)
  6. During Feb-April : 9/22 (40.9%) for 53.3pts (+242.1%)
  7. In fields of 7-9 runners : 8/19 (42.1%) for 47.7pts (+250.9%)
  8. With his only runner all day : 7/20 (35%) for 28.9pts (+145%)
  9. At 7/4 to 5/1 : 7/18 (38.9%) for 13.9pts (+77.2%)
  10. Under Richard Kingscote : 6/24 (25%) for 26.1pts (+108.6%)
  11. In cheekpieces : 3/11 (27.3%) for 7.54pts (+68.6%)
  12. And those with just 1 previous run in the preceding 90 days are 3/9 (33.3%) for 22.8pts (+253.5%)…

giving usa 1pt win bet on Charlie D @ 10/3 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.45am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 6.30 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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