Wednesday’s pick was…
7.10 Chelmsford : Indeed @ 7/2 BOG WON at 6/1 (Chased leader, led over 1f out, edged left, stayed on well)
Thursday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Grania O’Malley @ 3/1 BOG
…in a 5-runner, Class 4 Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner…
This 6 yr old mare is one of only two runners in this race to have actually won a race in the past and is the only winner at this 2m trip. She was a decent second last time out (13 days ago at Uttoxeter) with the final 6 lengths margin of defeat only happening in the closing stages as she struggled to see out 2m4f. That said, she was conceding 21lbs to the winner and yet still finished 7, 36 and 43 lengths respectively clear of the next three home.
She runs off the same mark again today and the drop back in trip should also help, as should the booking of experienced rider Adam Wedge. Adam has a good record here at this venue and since 2015, he’s 19 from 84 (22.6% SR) for 48.7pts (+58% ROI) when riding in handicaps for trainer Evan Williams here and these include of note/relevance today…
- 15/53 (28.3%) for 45.5pts (+85.6%) at odds of 7/4 to 8/1
- 15/60 (25%) for 53.5pts (+89.1%) at 6-45 dslr
- 12/35 (34.3%) for 39.6pts (+113%) top 3 finishers LTO
- 11/34 (32.4%) for 64.3pts (+189.1%) on 5/6 yo’s
- 5/16 (31.25%) for 5.1pts (+32%) over this 2m trip
- and 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.8pts (+42.1%) on good to soft
…whilst Wedge/Williams + 5-7 yo’s + 7/4 to 8/1 + top 3 LTO + 6-30 dslr = 6/11 (54.6% SR) for 37.1pts (+337.3% ROI)…
More generally, Evan has had success with turning horses back out fairly quickly after a decent run. Numerically/specifically, I’m saying that since the start of 2016 his runners in UK NH handicaps who had a top 3 finish LTO in the previous fortnight are 17 from 55 (30.9% SR) for 32.8pts (+60.8% ROI) and whilst 15 runners a year isn’t a large dataset to look at, there are some angles that (a) keep cropping up and (b) are valid today, such as…
- 8/24 (33.3%) for 22.5pts (+93.6%) from LTO runners-up
- 7/22 (31.8%) for 24.5pts (+111.2%) at Class 4
- 7/28 (25%) for 21.6pts (+77%) off the same mark as LTO
- 6/19 (31.6%) for 15.3pts (+80.5%) ridden by Adam Wedge
- 4/11 (36.4%) for 24.6pts (+223.7%) from May to July
- 4/13 (30.8%) for 17.9pts (+137.5%) in Novice handicaps
- 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.54pts (+94.9%) here at Ffos Las
- and 3/9 (33.3%) for 1.97pts (+21.9%) from female runners
…and LTO runners-up racing at Class 4 off the same mark as LTO are 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 22.57pts (+282.2% ROI)…
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Grania O’Malley @ 3/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!