Stat of the Day, 5th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 5th November 2015

Wednesday’s Result :

3.20 Chepstow : Sykes @ 5/2 BOG : WON at 9/4 (Held up towards rear, headway before 4 out, led before last, driven out to win by 0.75 lengths)

Thursday’s selection runs in the…

5.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lavinia Rose @ 100/30 BOG

Why?

She’s trained by Ralph Beckett who. as I constantly remind you is profitable to follow, is once again in good form, with 7 winners from 28 over the last fortnight, whilst his A/W charges are 5/14 in the last four weeks and in 2015, Ralph’s horses are 3/14 (21.4% SR) for 14pts (+100% ROI) here at Chelmsford.

Lavinia Rose made the frame twice in three Class 5 5/6f maidens before being fairly well beaten last time out, although that was not only a step into handicap company at 6.5f, but also up three levels to Class 2. Dropping back to a Class 6 6f maiden should make life easier for her on A/W debut.

Which brings me to the headline stat that since the start of 2010, Ralph Beckett’s horses making an A/W debut after 1 to 9 runs on turf, won that debut on 40 of 149 occasions (26.9% SR) for 134.8pts (+90.5% ROI) and that, allied to Ralph’s own general recent and historical form should be enough to justify the selection here.

However, I couldn’t resist taking a peek at those 149 runners to see if there were any angles of relevance/interest that might reinforce confidence and I found a baker’s dozen of interesting subsets of data, all of which are valid today…

1. those with just 1 to 4 previous runs are 37/126 (29.4% SR) for 145.9pts (+115.8% ROI)
2. non-handicappers are 33/107 (30.8% SR) for 132pts (+123.4% ROI)
3. those whose last run was 16 to 60 days ago are 29/101 (28.7% SR) for 154.9pts (+153.4% ROI)
4. those who failed to make the first three home LTO are 23/97 (23.7% SR) for 140.3pts (+144.6% ROI)
5. 2yr olds are 29/90 (32.2% SR) for 138.9pts (+154.9% ROI)
6. in maiden races : 29/88 (33% SR) for 142.7pts (+16.1% ROI)
7. female runners are 22/75 (29.3% SR) for 155.6pts (+207.4% ROI)
8. over trips of 6/7f : 24/70 (34.3% SR) for 156.4pts (+223.4% ROI)
9. when Ralph’s only runner at the track : 18/63 (28.6% SR) for 34.1pts (+54.1% ROI)
10. those beaten by 5 to 15 lengths LTO are 15/54 (27.8% SR) for 123.5pts (+228.7% ROI)
11. when Ralph’s only runner of the day : 11/38 (29% SR) for 24.2pts (+63.6% ROI)
12. class 6 runners are 7/24 (29.2% SR) for 20.4pts (+85.1% ROI)
13. those ridden by Richard Kingscote are 3/9 (33.3% SR) for 8.1pts (+90% ROI)

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Lavinia Rose at 100/30 BOG with either of Bet365 or BetVictor. I’ve used Bet365 for my bet, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 5.10 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.