Racing Insights, Saturday 30/07/22

The Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) report is our free feature every Saturday and it works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report and it has produced excellent results for our GOLD subscribers. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most successful of those combinations.

Of my four qualifiers from the TJC report, I’m going to swerve the Goodwood race (28-runners!) also the one at Galway (18 run) and focus upon the two at Thirsk and Hamilton, starting with Il Bandito is the 4.55 Thirsk, a a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 7f on good to soft ground…

IL BANDITO had been in great form prior to finishing well down the field in the Bunbury last time out. Before that race, he had made the frame in 13 of 17 races, winning a respectable four times and his record this season has been impressive with two wins and two places from five starts. His credentials are backed by up some good stats for his trainer as above and he’s down in class here. As for his own record under similar circumstances…

One from six in this grade isn’t exceptional, but he has made the frame in five of the six and in three of his five defeats over today’s trip. In addition to those stats provided by Instant Expert, I can also tell you that he has finished 3113 in four starts under today’s jockey, which is another bonus. His racing style is usually one where he tracks the leaders in a prominent position, and his early pace is shown below for his most recent outings…

He’s drawn fairly centrally in six of thirteen, which in fairness isn’t the best, as stats from similar past races have tended to favour those drawn higher than stall 7, but at 2 boxes away from the ideal zone, it’s not insurmountable and the pace stats below also highlight the need for early speed here.

The pace/draw heat map therefore, is heavily weighted towards the mid to high drawn prominent/leading runners and although he’s not quite in the ideal spot, that shouldn’t necessarily be an end to his chances, because there’s actually a lack of real pace in the contest and he might well end up stepping forward to take it on if the following pans out…

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Our second possible is Bouncing Bobby in the 8.30 Hamilton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right handed 1m3f on good ground…

BOUNCING BOBBY has been in first three home in all four starts this season, although he was actually last of three over 1m5f at Ayr in May, five weeks after opening the season with a win over the same course and distance at a class lower. He dropped back to Class 6 at Redcar in June and was only beaten by a short head off the same mark over 1m6f before finishing third of eight over 1m4½f at Musselburgh a month ago, staying on over an inadequate trip. My concern here is that 1m3f is too short, as it’s now 20 races since he last raced at a trip shorter than a mile and a half and his career stats under today’s conditions are…

..which doesn’t make good reading. Closer inspection shows he has made the frame in two of his six good ground defeats, in five of his eleven Class 6 losses and in one of this three visits to Hamilton. He has also been placed in both outings under today’s jockey, so whilst a win looks unlikely at this point, I wouldn’t yet rule out the chance of an E/W bet. He’s a confirmed hold-up horse, so if he is to go well here, he’s going to have to avoid traffic, according to his recent pace profiles…

Sadly, hold-up horses have fared particularly badly here over this course and distance, although his low draw is the best place to be….

Ideally, he’d have been a leader based on the stats above, as our pace/draw heat map really does favour the low drawn pace setter…

…but I suppose his draw is the best you can get for a hold-up horse!

Summary

On the face of the above, Il Bandito would look to be my best chance of a successful bet from the two considered qualifiers from my , but I’m not sure he wins here. I’d expect him to be fully involved, but I’ve got him marginally behind Spangled Mac and Open Mind (in that order), who are also the 5/1 joint favourites. Throw in the fact that Il Bandito is priced at 11/2 just ahead of a pair of 7/1 shots and you see how competitive this race is.

This might sound a bit strange, but even though I doubt he’ll win, I also have the feeling that he’s good enough to win and 11/2 isn’t a bad price based on his pre-Bunbury form, so I think I will have a small wager there.

As for Bouncing Bobby, I think the market is right here too, as he’s the 9/2 joint third favourite and I think he has a really good chance of making the frame without threatening to win. The prize money is surely winging its way home with trainer Jim Goldie, whose pair of entrants head the market, where I’d expect the 7/2 Clan Jock to get the better of stablemate Cosa Sara.