Racing Insights, Friday 26/08/22

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My settings for the H4C report have generated two horses of interest…

…as the Goldie/O’Shea trainer/jockey combo heads to South Lanarkshire and I’ll have a think about those two after I’ve checked out the ‘free race’ list for Friday which looks like this…

• 4.35 Hamilton
• 4.54 Newmarket
• 5.43 Hamilton
• 6.00 Tipperary
• 6.45 Goodwood
• 7.15 Goodwood

…but I think I’m going to focus on the two Goldie/O’Shea horses who will both tackle handicaps over a right handed 1m4f on good to soft ground, although the class/field sizes are very different! Wickywickywheels goes first in the 6.53 Hamilton, a 15-runner, Class 2 affair worth over £51k, whilst half an hour later Clan Jock will face just five rivals in the Class 6, 7.23 Hamilton.

Wickywickwheels (WWW) goes first, so that’s where we’ll start with her racecard entry…

As you can see, she has won her last three on the spin and has four wins and a runner-up finish from her last six with the only blot being the one race didn’t run here at Hamilton!

She won here over 1m3f (C5) three months ago, was 2nd of 4 over 1m5f (C5) two months ago and won three times in July over 1m5f (C4), 1m3f (C6) and again over 1m5f (C4) last time out. She’s never raced at 1m4f, but her form over 1m3f/1m5f suggests it shouldn’t be an issue.

The problem might be the step up to Class 2 for a filly who has never been higher than Class 4 and she’s up another 6lbs for her most recent win by just a neck, meaning she’ll need to defy a career-high mark of 86 to land this, which is 24lbs higher than she was three months ago, but that doesn’t mean she can’t/won’t run well again.

Her 6lb rise and four Hamilton wins are documented by Instant Expert…

…which also reminds us that she’s not raced at Class 2 before and that this is her first effort on Good to Soft ground, but she has raced once on soft and twice on soft/heavy and although she was unsuccessful each time over inadequate trips, she did tend to stay on well.

She’s drawn very wide in stall 13 of 15, but the draw shouldn’t have a massive effect over a mile and a half and to be honest, we don’t have many good to soft, big field, 1m4f contests to look back on, but by using logical expansions of the criteria, I can offer this…

…which is still inconclusive, but does show that it’s possible to win from anywhere and would then put more emphasis on the pace of the contest and the stats for pace are a little more clear-cut…

…it’s still a fairly small sample size, but the stats say race as far forward as you can, but WWW seems have to run really well here despite defying that advice…

…all of which gives me plenty of food for thought as I ponder the chances of Clan Jock half an hour later in the 7.23 Hamilton…

…another in-form runner seeking a hat-trick and a fourth win in six outings. He has finished 13211 in his last five and aside from a third of nine at Beverley, the other four runs have all been here at Hamilton, featuring a win over 1m3f, 2nd of 6 over 1m3f and then wins over 1m5f and then over 1m3f most recently with all three wins by narrow margins, staying on well and just doing enough, which is probably why his mark has only gone from 53 to 60 and he’s only up 2lbs for his latest effort from which the runner-up (Ralphy Boy Two who re-opposes here on worse terms) has since won here over course and distance, which augurs well for CJ today.

Instant Expert suggests that conditions are almost ideal for him here…

…and whilst his record at the trip isn’t as good as his other stats, it’s important to know that he’s 3 from 10 at 1m3f to 1m5f and only 3 from 22 at 7f to 1m6f, so whilst it’s not exceptional at this type of trip, it’s certainly his best distance and he has made the frame in 5 of the 7 defeats.

He’s is stall 2, which hasn’t been a bad place to be in similar past events…

…and although his pace profile is mixed, it hasn’t stopped him running well here and to be honest, horses seem to be able to win here from most positions…

Those racing in mid-division have struggled, but 17 is a very small sample size and that should possibly be seen as unreliable without enough data.

What I will say about pace and draw for this race is that if neither pace nor draw are going to have a massive effect on the race, then you back what you perceive to be the best horse, if you can get what you deem to be a fair price.

Summary

Race conditions look ideal for both of Jim Goldie’s runners here and both would appear to offer the punter a chance of making a profit from any investment.

More specifically Wickywickwheels looks unsuited by both draw & pace, but that hasn’t stopped her from racking up a fine sequence of results here recently and you could arguably say the same of Clan Jock. Perhaps both are getting over the unsuitability by being better than they look?

So, what are you doing with them, Chris?

Well, WWW is on a career high mark and races two classes higher than she ever has, but is in great form. I think she’ll do what she always does and run her best race under her favoured jockey (2/2 together), but I think that this going to be a step too far for her, even with some firms paying 5 places. The one I like the look of here is the 7/1 Haliphon, whilst at a bigger price, Sir Chauvelin might be an E/W tempter at 12’s.

As for CJ, he’s my winner here and I expect him to confirm his superiority over Ralphy Boy. I was expecting a tough decision whether or not to back CJ at an expected 6/4, but bet365 have opened at 9/4, so I’ll have some of that and I’ve a sneaking suspicion that it might be a Jim Goldie 1-2 (he does saddle up 3 of the 6 runners, mind) with the 7/1 stablemate Lochnaver better than his odds might suggest.