Double Dutch, 29th January 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 29th January 2014

Milosam failed to complete the course and distance four-timer at Taunton yesterday, as he was headed deep into the run-in to go down by a neck and with Mentalist unseating his rider 4 from home, the race and the double were both gone.

In race 2, Stun Gun finished a neck in front of De Lesseps, but unfortunately there was another two horses in front of them. All of which means another loss in this cold spell for DD and a further erosion of our profit.

Yesterday’s results were as follows:

Milosam: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Mentalist: UR at 11/4  (adv 7/2)
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Stun Gun: 3rd at 7/4 (adv 6/4)
De Lesseps: 4th at 4/1 (adv 7/1)

Results to date:
129 winning selections from 463 = 27.86%
41 winning doubles in 124 days = 33.06%

Stakes: 246.00pts
Returns: 248.04pts

P/L : +2.04pts (+0.83% ROI)

Both the wins trike rate and the doubles strike rate are now below my personal targets and the profits are almost wiped out from these recent poor run. Today is the last “free bet” and the lack of racing doesn’t inspire, but every race has a winner, we just need to find them!

5.20 Kempton

Poitin just failed to get home last time out over 1m4f here six days ago, but ran very well to go down by just three parts of a length. This came on the back of a very creditable 4th place over course and distance a fortnight earlier and the drop back to that 1m2f is sure to suit today. Harry Dunlop’s filly carries bottom weight here off the same mark as last week. She “gets” the surface OK, having won once and placed twice from her last five efforts here and looks most likely to me at a generally available 9/4 BOG.

The alternate pick is Apache Glory, who looks massively overpriced at the 10/1 BOG on offer in places. I was expecting her to be around the 5/1 mark for this contest and she’s worth an E/W bet on her own. She won three times in early 2013 and was unlucky to be beaten over this same 1m2f trip at Lingfield last time out, when beaten by a short head.

This is her best trip, as she has four wins and 2 places from just 10 efforts at 1m2f and if there’s a decent early pace, she could be the one to strike late on.

*

7.20 Kempton:

Not the easiest race to call, but I think today might be the day that Saffire Song sheds her maiden tag at the 9th time of asking. She stayed on well over 5f at Lingfield five days ago when beaten by three-quarters of a length, but the way she finished that race suggests that she’s ready for the step back to this 6f trip and although this is a fairly well-matched set of runners here, it wouldn’t actually take much to win the race and a repeat of last week’s run could be enough. Saffire Song is the selection at 100/30 BOG in most places.

Female Strategy is an interesting runner on handicap debut. With just three runs under her belt and dropped back in trip today, there’s obviously lots of scope for improvement upon reasonable if not impressive runs on the A/W at Wolverhampton in her last two races. Sired by Holy Roman Emperor and closely related to several winners 6f to a mile, she could be one to watch at a widely available 3/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles with BetVictor as follows:

Poitin / Female Strategy @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1)
Poitin / Saffire Song @ 13.08/1 (9/4 & 10/3 )
Apache Glory / Female Strategy @ 43/1 (10/1 & 3/1 also Bet365, Hills & Stan James)
Apache Glory / Saffire Song @ 46.67/1 (10/1 & 10/3 also Coral, Stan James)