Stat of the Day, 7th February 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th February 2015

Conditions were ideal for Topaling at Wolverhampton last night and she ran the race to the best of her abilities as far as I could see. She was perhaps a little one paced at the end, but I’ve no complaints about her finishing third at 3/1.

She was a little over two lengths behind a winner who was too good for her, justifying 11/10 favouritism with the runner-up putting in a career best performance.

These things happen, unfortunately and we just move on to Saturday and the…

4.25 Warwick:

Where I’ve backed Vesuvhill at 7/2 BOG, as he attempts to land back to back soft ground course and distance wins. He was the winner of a novice handicap hurdle here 4 weeks ago beating a host of higher rated horses in the process and suggesting a return to form after 3 unplaced efforts in his first three hurdles races (07P).

“The return to form”…

Since 2008, handicap hurdlers running within 11 to 30 days of a last time out win, which came after a run of at least consecutive unplaced efforts, went on to win again on 158 of 922 (17.1% SR) times, producing 229.7pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 24.9%.

Those priced in the 2/1 to 10/1 range won 130 of 666 (19.9% SR) for 189.1pts (+28.4% ROI), rising to 74/312 (23.7% SR) for 153.2pts (+49.1% ROI) over the last three years, from which runners at Warwick are 3/6 for 78pts.

That win was over course and distance…

And since 2008, Runners with CD next to their name who also won (anywhere) last time out are 7/25 (28% SR) for 7.15pts (+28.6% ROI) when running at 5/1 or shorter in a handicap race here at Warwick. From this, hurdlers are 4/8 for 9.25pts.

And the win was a novice handicap hurdle…

Handicap hurdlers aged 4 to 9 who carried 10-10 to 11-11 within 11 to 30 days of a novice hurdle win last time out are 110/569 (19.3% SR) for 133.4pts (+23.4% ROI) and with a simple 6/4 to 9/1 odds filter, we can significantly improve the figures to 100/445 (22.5% SR) for 161.2pts at an ROI of 36.2%

And the jockey/trainer stats…

Jockey Kielan Woods has a record of 11/61 (18% SR) for 48.9pts (80.1% ROI) on Ben Case’s runners to date, which is a decent return too.

There seems to be a fair bit there to support our selection, whose 10lb rise in weight looks to be at least partially offset by the lack of quality in the field. That soft ground course and distance win last time out might just prove to be the difference here today.

So, for me, it’s a 1pt win bet on Vesuvhill at 7/2 BOG and the price is readily available in several places. I’ve used Coral, because they’ll refund me in case he falls, unseats his rider or gets brought down, but as always, you really should…

…click here for the latest betting on the 4.25 Warwick

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Here is today’s racecard.