Stat of the Day, 18th August 2015
A lovely start to the new week with Dancing Star winning very convincingly indeed. She grabbed the rail from an early point and then dictated the pace of the race from the front to notch up another win for us.
David Probert handled her beautifully and chose the perfect moment to step on the gas and she readily pulled away from the pack to win by more than two lengths.
Our original 5/1 BOG was reduced down to 7/2 courtesy of a 30p Rule 4 deduction, but we still absolutely smashed the 7/4 SP. It’s always nice to start the week on a high, but getting winners at double the SP is what Geegeez is all about, as explained further in Matt’s Monday blog piece.
And not only was this SotD’s 350th winner, it also took us beyond the 100pt barrier for the year!
So, with another winning Monday out of the way, let’s head for the sand for Tuesday’s…
Where, despite us taking them for a few quid on Monday evening, Betfair Sportsbook are offering 4/1 BOG about Sir Mark Prescott’s 2yr old colt Time Warp for this Class 4, 7 furlong nursery.
Time Warp will be ridden by Luke Morris today, who is in fine form, having ridden 14 winners from 61 (23% SR) in the last fortnight. His recent record on A/W is 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 5.4pts (+25.6% SR) and in that fortnight period, he has 8 wins from 15 (53.3% SR) rides on the Prescott horses for profits of 12.5pts (+83.4% ROI).
In the last two weeks the Luke Morris / Sir Mark Prescott partnership is 3/6 (50% SR) for 9.3pts (+154.9% ROI) on the all-weather.
Mind you, Sir Mark is good form too with a record of 10/21 (47.6% SR) producing 19.1pts (+90.7% ROI) in the last fortnight, of which 2yr olds are 4/8 (50% SR) for 4.36pts (+54.5% ROI), whilst his A/W runners are also 4/8 (50% SR) but this time, the profits are much higher at 14.95pts (+186.9% ROI).
In the last two weeks, Sir Mark Prescott’s 2yr olds are 2/3 for 1.75pts on the A/W.
The Morris / Prescott partnership is a tried and tested formula for success and since the start of 2012 in A/W contests with horses priced in the broad 6/4 to 12/1 spectrum, they have 37 winners from 159 (23.3% SR) for 54.4pts (+34.2% ROI) and more specifically at odds of 5/2 to 7/1, where we normally pitch SotD, the combo has 24 winners from 99 (24.2% SR) for 36.6pts (+36.9% ROI)
Sir Mark also has a good record here at Kempton and since 2010, his runners priced at 7/4 to 10/1 are 18/78 (23.1% SR) for 31.7pts (+40.7% ROI) profit, with Luke Morris riding 8 of the winners from 32 attempts (25% SR) resulting in profits of 15.4pts (+48% ROI).
Not only do the trainer and jockey general and particular track stats support the nomination of Time Warp, the fact that he makes a handicap debut today is also of interest to me (and hopefully you!), because the Prescott handicap debutants since 2009 are 33/173 (19.1% SR) for 8.3pts (+4.8% ROI) and whilst that’s a modest (sub- SotD standard!) return, focusing on those priced at 5/2 to 9/1 is much more profitable wih 23 wins from 92 (25% SR) and 61.2pts profit at an ROI of 66.5%.
Those debutants are 10/44 (22.7% SR) for 31.8pts (+72.2% ROI) on the A/W, whilst Luke Morris’ own record on the first timers is 8/36 (22.2% SR) for 14.2pts (+39.6% ROI). All of which leads to a Luke Morris / Prescott hcp debut / AW record of 4/18 (22.2% SR) for 7.64pts (+42.5% ROI), from which the team are 2/5 (40% SR) for 7.1pts here at Kempton.
So, that’s quite a lot of data linking the trainer, the jockey, the race conditions and the track together, but what of the horse? Well, I can tell you that he won pretty comfortably by 6 lengths last time out over the same trip, but on Southwell’s A/W track 12 days ago and the short turn around allied to the margin of victory is another strong indicator of his chances today, because…
A/W handicappers priced between 6/4 and 10/1 running at trips of 6f to 1.5 miles 3 to 45 days after a win on the A/W by 5 lengths or more are 65/247 (26.3% SR) for 72.8pts (+29.5% ROI) since the start of 2012. Those running 11 to 45 days after such a comfortable win and now tackle 6f to a mile are 21/72 (29.2% SR) for 39.8pts (+55.3% ROI).
I took my 4/1 BOG about Time Warp from the Betfair Sportsbook, as they were half a point clear of the general market, but you can always…
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