Stat of the Day, 11th August 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

4.20 Wolverhampton : Conkering Hero @ 5/2 BOG 4th at 13/8 (Led early, tracked leader until over 11f out, hung left over 1f out, staying on same pace when bumped well inside final furlong, beaten by just over a length)

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

2.40 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Reckless Endeavour @ 11/2 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 2, All-Weather Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £25876 to the winner… 

Why?

A 5yr old gelding who has 3 wins and 5 places from 11 runs on Polytrack including 3 wins and 3 places over 6f and is now back on his last winning mark from when he won a similar Class 2 A/W handicap over this trip at Lingfield.

His trainer, Jamie Osborne is in reasonable enough form having landed 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) over the last 30 days, whilst since the start of 2016, he is 26 from 152 (17.1% SR) for 51.8pts (+34.1% ROI) here at Chelmsford, from which…

• those racing within 15 days of their last run are 12/72 (16.6%) for 21.8pts (+30.3%)
• over 6f : 12/59 (20.3%) for 19.5pts (+33.1%)
• those ridden by Dougie Costello : 9/49 (18.4%) for 34.8pts (+71%)
• and racing over 6f within 15 days : 6/31 (19.4%) for 22.3pts (+71.8%)

Whilst more generally in UK A/W handicaps over 5f to 8.5f since the start of 2013, horses beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO 2 to 5 days ago are 161/724 (22.2% SR) for 198.1pts (+27.4% ROI), including…

• 3-7 yr olds : 133/590 (22.5%) for 180.2pts (+30.5%)
• males : 130/559 (23.3%) for 170.2pts (+30.4%)
• 3-7 yr old males : 105/438 (24%) for 148.9pts (+34%)
• on Polytrack : 90/416 (21.6%) for 17.8pts (+28.3%)
• 3-7 yr olds on Polytrack : 76/339 (22.4%) for 120.4pts (+35.5%)
• and 3-7 yr old males on Polytrack : 58/244 (23.8%) for 93.2pts (+38.2%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Reckless Endeavour @ 11/2 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Bet365 at 7.00pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.40 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!