Stat of the Day, 14th May 2019

Monday’s pick was…

5.45 Musselburgh : Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/4 (Towards rear, ridden 3f out, not trouble leaders )

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

7.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


The Drone @ 11/4 BOG

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…in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 3m on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner…


Well, I’m running a bit late this morning (I’d an appointment to attend) and this horse crops up in quite a few of my stored micro-systems (some of them fairly similar to each other admittedly), so I’ll try to keep this brief, whilst still giving you a good overview of why this race should suit this lightly-raced 8 yr old gelding.

He’s trained by Alex Hales (more on him very shortly) and will be ridden by Kielan Woods, he has five top three finishes from just six efforts over hurdles, winning twice including a class, course and distance success here last time out under Kielan twenty days ago, when clear by four lengths despite problems with the saddle slipping.

Now to the data…

1. Alex Hales + Class 4/5 handicap hurdlers at 10/1 and shorter + 2015-19 = 22/100 (22% SR) for 45.6pts (+45.6% ROI)

2. Alex Hales + Southwell handicap hurdles at 10/1 and shorter + 2016-19 = 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 40pts (+333.7% ROI), all at class 4/5, including 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 19.47pts (+249.6%) at Class 4.

3. Since 2011 in UK handicap hurdles, horses who won at the same class, course and distance LTO are 117/450 (26% SR) for 162.5pts (+36.1% ROI), from which…

  • 6-30 days since that win : 90/336 (26.8%) for 125pts (+37%)
  • at Southwell : 7/17 (41.2%) for 16.1pts (+94.8%)
  • and at Southwell + 6-30dslr : 5/12 (41.7%) for 5.82pts (+48.5%)

4. And since the start of 2017 in Class 4 handicap hurdles, males who won by a length or more LTO are 141/522 (27% SR) for 67pts (+12.8% ROI), including…

  • over trips of 2.5m to 3m : 68/229 (29.7%) for 80.4pts (+35.1%)
  • at Southwell : 8/20 (40%) for 19.7pts (+98.5%)
  • and at Southwell over 2.5m to 3m : 7/17 (41.2%) for 17pts (+100%).

You can, of course, dig further into the above data and find plenty of relevant/profitable angles at play today, but I’m satisfied that there’s enough there already…

…to support… a 1pt win bet on The Drone @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.35pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.10 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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