13 Killer Breeders Cup Stats

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The Breeders’ Cup, America’s two day festival of flat racing, gets underway this Friday, and geegeez.co.uk will be there to bring you all the news. Ahead of that, for those who like a bet (that’s everyone, right?!), here are thirteen killer stats to keep in mind when framing your wagers.

Final entries and the post position draw will be made later today in Santa Anita, California, host site for the eighth time.

Friday

1. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

Only one of the 21 horses in the first three in the betting on the US tote has won this race so far.

However, the biggest priced winner was just 12.5/1, so don’t go too far off road. The average win payoff in the seven renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf has been $17.46, or roughly 15/2.

2. Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Six of the seven Dirt Mile winners were aged three or four. This year, just five of the twelve pre-entries are in that age bracket. The sole five year old to win paid a tote-tilting $77.40 (about 37/1).

3. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Not an especially strong trends affair yet, after just six iterations, but it could be material to note that five of the six Juvenile Fillies Turf winners had won over a mile or more already.

The one exception, French-trained Flotilla, had been beaten less than two lengths in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac on her prior start, and paid over 11/1 on the US tote.

4. Breeders’ Cup Distaff

The showpiece on the Friday, briefly (and shamefully) known as the Ladies’ Classic, has some very interesting trends. Perhaps the most notable of them is that all of the last fifteen Distaff winners were aged three or four. That accounts for just half of the twelve pre-entries. Indeed, 25 of the 30 Distaff winners since the dawn of the Breeders’ Cup were aged three or four.

Saturday

5. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

25 of the 30 Juvenile Fillies winners had already won at Graded level.

This year, just four of the fifteen remaining entries satisfy that historical benchmark.

6. Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

Seven of the last eight FM Turf winners, and eleven out of fourteen overall, were aged three or four. The other three were aged five.

This year, no less than ten of the seven pre-entries are five and up, with two six year olds bidding to do what none that age has achieved before.

7. Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

Another of the new races, with seven in the record books so far, and trends are of limited value in whittling down the field. However, four of the seven Filly and Mare Sprint winners had tasted Grade 1 glory that season. Of the other three, one was Groupie Doll last year, who was the reigning FM Sprint queen; and the other two had both been second in G1 company that season, and were double figure prices.

8. Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

A very strong angle for the Turf Sprint when it’s held on Santa Anita’s unique downhill six and a half furlong chute, called Oak Tree. There have been four renewals held on this quirky strip, and all four have been won by a horse with at least two wins over course and distance.

This year, just three of the eligible pre-entries qualify, as does the seriously unlucky not to be selected Regally Ready, who needs six to come out in order to get a run. That, alas, is not going to happen.

9. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Not a strong trends race at all, with training methods seemingly veering towards conservatism in recent years. 22 of the 30 Juvenile winners have come from the first three in the betting. As such, this is a race I’m happy enough to largely bypass. That said, I’ve backed one at 20/1 for very small money… 😉

10. Breeders’ Cup Turf

All 31 winners of the Turf (taking in both dead heaters in 2003) were aged three to five. That is a knock against five of the sixteen pre-entries, all of which are aged six, and which includes Brown Panther.

11. Breeders’ Cup Sprint

The Sprint is a dirt six furlongs, and it may be little surprise that 15 of the last 21 Sprint winners had already scored at least twice in the season at the distance. (Thanks to the excellent Crushing The Cup for this snippet).

12. Breeders’ Cup Mile

This may be obvious to some, but I found it very interesting. In a race long considered to be one of the best chances of the European raiding party, 14 of the last 16 renewals were won by either a US horse (eleven wins in that time), or Goldikova (three wins). Indeed, both the other two Euro wins were by French-trained horses.

Taking that a step further, the seven Santa Anita BC Miles have been won by two superstar domestics – Lure and Wise Dan (twice) – and three French raiders (Last Tycoon, Six Perfections and Goldikova twice). Toronado fans beware? (And that’s before we even mention the Hannon yard stat…)

13. Breeders’ Cup Classic

The main event, a mile and a quarter on the dirt. As such, it’s little surprise that recent good form is key. Indeed, 29 of the 30 Classic winners to date had all finished in the first three last time out. That counts against six of the fifteen pre-entries, including California Chrome, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes earlier in the season.

That’s a few pointers to help you towards the winners’ circle in this weekend’s big racing showdown. If you’d like more – much more – then do sign up for my Breeders Cup 2014 Special Edition.

Inside you’ll find full trends profile grids; pace angles; form previews; and, of course, suggested best bets. I’ll also share the four wagers I’ve struck so far (and why).

The price for this data pack almanac is £12.99 + VAT, or around £1 per race.

Here’s how this will work

Once you’ve subscribed, you’ll receive access to a special page on geegeez, which will be a ‘real time’ workbook. As of this evening, the trends grids will all be present, as will the list of runners and how they map to the profile.

On Wednesday latest, probably tomorrow, all pace content will be available, as well as post positions (i.e. starting stalls).

On Thursday, the full report will be online, including best bets overall, and race by race form previews and selections.

Here’s an example of last year’s content, taken from the Breeders’ Cup Classic:

I don’t like Game On Dude. I just don’t like him. He’s too old. He wants to lead, and won’t get his own way there. He’s drawn wide. And he was beaten fifteen lengths as the 13/10 favourite last year.

Nope, not for me at 8/5 or whatever skinny price he’ll be.

Against him, the rock solid option is Mucho Macho Man. Second, beaten half a length last year, he’s in the same form this time around, and should have plenty of pace to gun down in the stretch. He was devastating in dispatching Paynter in the Grade 1 Awesome Again last time, and he’s had a nice rest since.

Declaration Of War is good enough to win this IF he can go on the dirt. That’s a big ‘if’, given connections multiple previous failed attempts. On the bright side, he’s bred for dirt to some degree, and he trained very well on it at Southwell before shipping, and has done well since arriving here too.

He would be well worth staying up past midnight for if he can put it all together. The trainer did sound a note of caution about the kickback, but he didn’t mention being worried about any of the other horses in the race!

Fort Larned won this well last year, having beaten Game On Dude for the early lead. His repeater efforts stand or fall on again getting the lead, and at the price he’s too short with that big imponderable very much in play.

Paynter was well beaten by MMM last time, but could come on for that and, though there’s no obvious reason for a form turnaround, at 14/1 he could still chase the Macho Man (or the Declaration Of War) home.

I’m thinking of laying Game On Dude for a place. Could be a cheap bet, and there has to be a strong chance he sulks and finishes nowhere like he did last year.

Result: Much Macho Man won at 4/1, landing some great bets. Game On Dude was taken on for the lead and sulked his way to 9th of 11 as the short-priced favourite.